A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
